The relations between Turkey and Russia in the 21st century have always been key to stability in the region of the Black Sea and could be described as complex and to some extent troublesome. In 2010, both countries signed a package of deals regarding the common energy policy, trade, and visa-free travel – these arrangements gave way to strengthening ties between the two. However, the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War in 2011 ended this peaceful cooperation, as the interests of the two countries started to clash: Russia supported the regime of Bashar al-Assad, while Turkey stressed its support for the rebelling opposition. The Turkish-Russian relations further deteriorated in September 2015, when Russia embarked on its own military intervention in Syria in support of Assad. This escalation of tensions resulted in the shootdown of a Russian military jet Sukhoi Su-24 by Turkey on 24 November 2015 near the Syrian-Turkish border. Following the incident, mutual relations between Turkey and Russia deteriorated dramatically: Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, decided to impose numerous economic sanctions against its neighbour and suspend the visa-free travel between the two countries. What a few years ago seemed like prosperous cooperation between the most important regional powers, now entered a period of uncertainty and political instability.
However, the year 2016 brought a normalization of ties between the two states, with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan expressing regret to Putin for the November shootdown in June 2016. Russia lifted its sanctions against Turkey in the following months, with their leaders meeting and telephoning each other more frequently than ever. What caused such a rapid and unordinary rapprochement in the Russian-Turkish relations? The answer may be found not far from the Turkish border: the prolonging war in Syria. As a destabilizing force both in the economic and political terms, and a source of uncontrolled flow of migration, the conflict started to be a serious disturbance for both Turkey and Russia. Another factor contributing to the rebirth of the Russian-Turkish cooperation was undoubtedly the conduct of the foreign policy of the US under the administration of Donald J. Trump. Both countries clashed with the US on several occasions since the very beginning of Trump’s tenure; furthermore, they supported each other in their respective disputes with the American government (Turkey condemned the US sanctions against Russia over the annexation of Crimea and 2016 election interference, while Russia backed Turkey in their detention of Andrew Brunson, an American pastor whom Turkey accused of spying).
Apart from a diplomatic cooperation between the two, Russia and Turkey began to grow closer in terms of the military relations. In 2017, the Turkish government expressed its interest in purchasing some of the Russian military equipment, including the S-400 surface-to-air missile system. This move made Turkey the second member of NATO (after Greece) which turned to Russia to buy its munitions. It was criticized by the US and some other NATO members, with the Trump administration pressurizing Erdogan to cancel the deal with Russia. Notwithstanding, Turkey went further on and official talks regarding the purchase of Russian military aircraft commenced, with future arrangements possible in the nearest future.
However, this good cooperation came to an abruptive halt in the last days of February 2020, when the Russian-backed Assad regime killed 34 Turkish soldiers in an attack near Idlib, northwestern Syria. The offensive caused a diplomatic crisis, with both Putin and Erdogan exchanging impedances and questioning any further cooperation between the countries in the region. As of March 6, a preliminary ceasefire had been agreed, although the Russo-Turkish relations undoubtedly face an uncertain and volatile future.
1349 IB World School Journal 